The chilly and even cold weather from this past weekend continued into Monday with high temperatures mostly in the 30s for Iowa. For the Ames Airport, the coldest low of the season of 20°F was observed Monday morning. The featured chart looks into daily high temperatures during the fall season after the first sub 21°F was established for each year on record for Ames. The top panel displays the maximum high temperature, the middle panel plots that maximum high temperature vs the date of first sub 21°F low temperature. The bottom panel plots the number of days with a high temperature of at least 60°F. The middle panel clearly shows that the max temperature after the first sub 21°F is clearly a function of the time of year that first low occurred. Rewording, an early-in-the-season cold temperature will likely still have quite a warm temperature to follow as climatology is very much in the favor of that happening. Our actual forecast has a return of mild weather later in the week and a run at daily high temperatures approaching 70°F!

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