Perhaps thankfully for human weather forecasters and their jobs, the various weather prediction models are not perfect. The featured chart presents a comparison between time-lagged ensemble forecast temperature ranges for afternoon high and morning low temperature for Des Moines from the GFS Model Output Statistics (MOS) for this February. A good and confident forecast would appear as a tight range of values (bars) with the observation falling safely inside that range. The low temperature forecast has particularly been a struggle with very few hits shown by this chart.

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