IEM Daily Feature
Thursday, 02 February 2017
Thursday, 02 February 2017
Throwing Darts
Posted: 02 Feb 2017 05:34 AM
The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) runs a seasonal forecast model
known as the Climate Forecast System (CFS). The IEM has been archiving the morning
run made each day that goes out nine months into the future. The featured chart presents
each model run's forecast for average February temperature for Ames. Within the
meteorological community, the CFS model has been criticized for having poor run to run
consistency and the featured chart illustrates that pretty clearly. The scatter plot shows
forecasts all over the board with wild fluctuations between successive model runs. One
would hope to more obvious trends with successive runs providing incremental changes as
the model trends warmer or cooler. So what will our February look like? Perhaps throwing
a dart would be as effective :)
Voting:
Good = 12
Bad = 0
Abstain = 1
Tags: cfs model
Voting:
Good = 12
Bad = 0
Abstain = 1
Tags: cfs model