IEM Daily Feature
Friday, 25 April 2014

MOS Forecasts

Posted: 25 Apr 2014 05:35 AM

Model Output Statistics (MOS) are point forecasts produced from combining raw numerical model output and statistics on past model performance. Over time as subsequent MOS forecasts are produced, these forecasts create a range of predicted values. The featured chart shows the range of the combined MOS forecasts over time and the actual observations from the Des Moines Airport. The MOS forecast range from the NAM model has missed the high temperature for the past two days and seven out of the past nine days. Even with this seemingly inaccuracy, the forecast for April 22 was very precise over time and accurate! Models are not perfect, so there is still plenty of room for humans to add value.

Good = 48
Bad = 16
Abstain = 17

Tags:   mos