The featured chart presents the maximum period with temperatures below freezing based on hourly observations for Des Moines. The longest period this year is only a bit longer than three previous years. There is still plenty of winter season to go and as is shown by the bottom chart, there are longest streaks of the season that get started in February and even March. The forecast has been hinting at a return of winter to the state with chances of snow, but temperatures do not look that cold at least to early next week.

Wednesday was yet another amazingly warm day in winter for most folks in Iowa. Des Moines hit 60 degrees for the third day in a row. The weather bureau noted that this was the first three day stretch of 60 degrees for Des Moines during the period of 15 Dec to 15 Feb on record! The featured chart presents the warmest three day streak of weather based on the minimum high temperature during that period. The first day of the streak is used to place the three day value for a month. Our most recent streak would be the warmest for January besting the previous streak in 2002 of 59.

Winter is expected to return this weekend with a storm system developing just to our southwest this morning. The weather forecast models have been teasing a significant snowfall for Iowa, but change their mind after sequential runs in time. The featured chart presents Global Forecast System (GFS) model forecasted precipitation for a grid point near Des Moines. The model is run every six hours producing a forecast out for the next two weeks or so. Model runs up until January 30th had this weekend being dry. Subsequent model runs then dumped heavy amounts of rain or snow or some mixture for Des Moines. Two model runs yesterday had Des Moines missing almost all precipitation. The most recent run (top row) now has rain today and snow on Saturday. Model inconsistencies like this make life fun and the folks that forecast the weather for a living lose hair or grey quickly.

Our most recent bout with a winter storm is now over and the snowfall pattern left over the state is remarkably complex. An intense snow band set up over west-central Iowa and dumped upwards of a foot of very wet snow over isolated areas near Interstate 80. The heaviest totals were west into Nebraska and the same system dumped record snowfalls for February over Denver, Colorado. The featured analysis attempts to show the heaviest snowfall totals and the remarkable gradient on the northern edge of the storm. Northern parts of some counties got just a trace of snow while the southern part got upwards of 8 inches.

The featured map is an attempt to show the total season snowfall for Iowa. A few areas of the state have missed out on the heavier snowfall events this season with an area to the west and north of Ames barely getting an inch or two in total so far. The forecast for the next week looks rather dry, but colder.

The featured chart is another illustration of how warm this winter has been. The chart shows the number of days this winter season that the low temperature has been at or below a given temperature threshold. The blue line represents the minimum total for any year prior to this year. The teal line is this winter and it closely hugs or exceeds the previous minimum at some thresholds. The overall minimum temperature has only been 1 degree this year, which would be the warmest on record if it stands for the rest of winter. Our last winter is plotted in red and shows how much different it was than this year.

The featured image is a composite of webcam images from Jefferson Iowa for the past nine years. The reported snow depth is shown for each year. There has been very little snowfall to speak of for many places in the state this winter as compared with recent years. A chance of snowfall is expected this weekend, but temperatures are expected to warm again to above freezing to help melt it away.

While not as warm as we recently have been, Thursday was another day this winter season with the high temperature above average. The featured chart presents the number of days for this winter period each year that the high temperature was above average. This year reverses the trend of the past four years having less than half of the days in this period below average. Colder air is back today with high temperatures struggling in the teens for the next two days.

It is always fun to check out satellite imagery on clear sky days in the winter time. The featured image shows Terra MODIS true color satellite imagery with high temperatures on Sunday. Having snow cover on Sunday made the difference between having a high temperature slightly below freezing to one that was a bit above freezing. Our next winter storm is here this morning with snowfall totals expected to not amount to much.

After a very slow start to winter, our snow producing storms have been coming a bit more frequently with the most recent storm dumping up to 5 inches over northwestern Iowa. The next storm will be here tomorrow with a mix of rain and snow expected.

The featured chart presents our winter to date rank for average temperature for Ames. We had gotten to 2nd warmest only to fall back to 6th place after our recent stretch of more winter like weather. The forecast does not look to better our ranking, but temperatures are expected comfortably above freezing each day. Only two more weeks to go until we are out of meteorological winter!

This winter has certainly seemed more like the other seasons of the year rather than the brutal winters we remember from past years. The featured chart is another metric showing how few winter weather headlines have been issued by the National Weather Service so far this winter as compared with the past six years. The value shown represents the average number of winter weather advisories and warnings per county in Iowa. The values are partitioned each year for before and after 16 Feb periods, so there is still plenty of time for more winter storms.

The featured map is an attempt to estimate the departure from average for total snowfall so far this winter season. Practically the entire state is shown below average with a good portion of central Iowa around two feet below average. The forecast has very limited chances of snow and temperatures well above freezing, so we may need to wait till March for winter to possibly return.

This winter certainly has not felt much like recent winters with the number of days with a high temperature over 40 nearly equaling the combined total of the past 4 years! Only two yeas in the past (1919 and 2002) have seen more winter to date days at or above 40 than this year. The forecast has yet more days in the 40s with more chances of rain than snow.

The featured map presents an estimate of precipitation for the calendar day on Monday. Most of this fell as rain and provided some much needed moisture for areas of the state that have been recently dry. An analysis of snowfall from this storm will be presented tomorrow. Our next storm system arrives on Wednesday with better chances of rainfall than snow.

The featured map is an IEM produced analysis of snowfall reports from our most recent winter storm system. Most of the precipitation from this system fell as rainfall, but some folks over northern Iowa got upwards of 2-3 inches of wet snow. Our active pattern looks to continue with northern Iowa again looking at the best chances of snowfall.

Ames, Iowa has found a way to mostly avoid each snow storm this winter with the largest single event snowfall total of just two inches. The computer models were keeping our next winter storm off to our north, but have shifted south with the heaviest totals coming dangerously close to central Iowa. The featured graphic is forecast probabilities of four inches of snow from the HPC for the 24 hour period ending Friday morning. In this depiction, Ames is on the southern fringe of the highest probabilities.

Getting two snow storms this week has certainly helped to make up for lost time this mostly quiet winter season. Snowfall totals were tempered in some locations thanks to having much of the liquid precipitation fall as rain. Some isolated areas in the state were still able to pick up upwards of eight inches of wet and heavy snow.

A strong wind and warm temperatures over this past weekend made for quick work of much of the snow that fell last week over Iowa. The featured image simply shows the difference between late Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon from the MODIS satellites. Our next storm system arrives this evening with the heaviest snowfall expected to stay to our north.

A major winter storm is organizing this morning with the worst conditions expected to stay just to our north where blizzard warnings are in effect. Unlike the past two winters where each county in Iowa got at least one blizzard warning issued for the season, this winter has seen none thus far.

Leap day presents an interesting aspect of climatology. In some cases, the date is ignored. In others, the date is given an average of Feb 28 and Mar 1. Some people think that since there have been fewer overall days since record keeping started, that the extremes on leap day would be some of the easiest to break. The featured chart presents these extremes along with the three days before and after. For temperature, values are not that much different than neighboring days. Precipitation tells a different story with the peak amount appearing to be easier to break (a much lower amount). Would you like to guess the reason for this?