IEM Daily Feature
Monday, 16 September 2019

Football Forecast Failure

Posted: 16 Sep 2019 05:34 AM

The weather ended up playing a much larger role for the big ISU vs Iowa football game in Ames this past Saturday than was forecast. Lightning delayed the game twice and downpours made for a very slippery and sometimes muddy field. This weather was not well forecast and not well handled by the weather forecast models. The featured map looks at the NCEP HRRR model, which is run hourly and provides high resolution depictions of thunderstorms. The map presents the time lagged composite of forecast reflectivity valid at 4 PM. The frequency shown is the number of models out of the possible previous 15 runs that had at least 30 dBZ analyzed reflectivity forecast at 4 PM on Saturday. The lower left map shows the actual RADAR at this time. This model was holding off on storms until much later into the evening. The HRRR model was not alone with missing this forecast.

Good = 15
Bad = 2

Tags:   football