National Weather Service Raw Text Product

031 
FXUS63 KDMX 090920
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
420 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Thursday/
Issued at 416 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Key Messages:

-Mostly dry Friday with a stray chance of showers in the early
 afternoon northwest.
-Rain moving in Friday night, lasting into early Sunday.
-Cool and dry start to next week.

Only a layer of high clouds moved across the northern part of the 
state this morning with much of the low levels sapped of moisture 
due to the area of high pressure in the East. Meanwhile, an MCS 
formed near a developing surface low in South Dakota. This area of 
convection will continue to move south along the moisture axis 
through the morning hours and is expected to erode as it moves
into dry air. Still, there is enough available moisture aloft to 
support at least showers in the northwest through the early 
afternoon hours. Have included small precipitation chances to 
reflect. The remainder of the daytime Friday will feature dry, 
pleasant weather under partly cloudy skies.

An intensifying wave to the north will work to deepen an area of low 
pressure that will move across the southern half of the state Friday 
night through early Sunday. Sufficient ingredients are in place to 
allow for much of the state to receive efficient rainfall through
the daytime and evening hours Saturday. With PWATs at 150% of 
climatological normal, enough moisture is present in the to 
preserve generally moist adiabatic profiles, limiting any severe 
threat. Warm cloud depths will near 10,000 ft by late Saturday, 
aiding in warm cloud processes and growth by collision-
coalescence. Highest confidence in southern Iowa receiving the 
most accumulated rain, but locations will change depending on the 
placement of the deformation axis. Still, expecting most areas 
south to receive near 1 inch of rain with higher amounts possible 
from localized convection. Northern Iowa will generally receive 
0.25" to 0.5" with locally higher amounts. Flooding concerns are 
minimal given the antecedent dry conditions across the state. The
departure timing of rain depends on the arrival of the area of 
high pressure in the north, but southeast Iowa could certainly see
rain continue into Sunday morning. 

The high pressure will quickly erode clouds by Sunday afternoon and 
temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s. Gradual 
warming is expected for the first half of the week with no active 
weather expected until at least the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Expect VFR conditions to continue throughout this TAF period.
Showers and thunderstorms may form in areas northwest of a KCIN 
to KMCW line towards the 18z-19z timeframe as a frontal boundary
moves through, but confidence is low on impacts to KFOD and KMCW 
so have left out VCSH/VCTS mentions for now. Will continue to 
monitor trends and update in further issuances. Winds will favor 
an easterly/southeasterly direction early in the period and then 
switch to a more southerly direction around the 0z timeframe, 
staying at 10 kts or less.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez 
AVIATION...Castillo/Ansorge