National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX Received: 2014-05-03 11:16 UTC


579 
FXUS63 KDMX 031116
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
616 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO CROSS IOWA. 
MODELS DO TRY TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS. HOWEVER...WAVE IS VERY WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
MOISTURE...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST THOUGH MAY SEE A STRAY 
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO 
LIMIT WARMING SOME...THOUGH EXPECT GOOD WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
WEST AND SOUTH AND HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING. 

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. ALSO RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET NEARBY HELPING TO INCREASE LIFT AND WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME DEEPER SATURATION IN FAR NORTHERN IOWA LATE
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FORCING CONTINUES WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH...FORCING IS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND SO IS SATURATION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL SEE SYSTEM TO
ADVANCE EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ENDING INTO THE NORTH BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF
LIGHT RAIN IN FAR NORTHERN IOWA...HOWEVER THE FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FARTHER NORTH AND NOT AS FOCUSED...THEREFORE ONLY
SPRINKLES SEEM LIKELY AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

ON THE BROADER SCALE...A LARGE WESTERN TROF DEVELOPS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY. GFS REMAINS MORE
ACTIVE FOR IOWA VS THE DRIER EURO. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTS THROUGH THE
STATE. WITH THERMAL RIDGE EDGING INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
IOWA. TIMING OF FEATURES BETWEEN THE MODELS BEGINS TO DIFFER BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
PERSIST AT THIS TIME AS A FRONT SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO COOL AS
THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH NEAR 00Z AND WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB