244 ACUS01 KWNS 190102 SWODY1 SPC AC 190100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening into late tonight across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi into parts of western Alabama. Some potential for locally damaging wind and a couple brief tornadoes may also continue into parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...ArkLaMiss into parts of AL/TN and the FL Panhandle... Widespread strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening across the ArkLaMiss region, in advance of an ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough that is approaching the lower/mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will remain rather modest, but strengthening deep-layer flow fields will continue to support organized convection as storms move eastward across LA/MS into parts of TN/AL and the FL Panhandle. Continued storm clustering and possible QLCS development will support potential for scattered damaging winds this evening into the overnight hours. Increasing low-level shear and boundary-layer moisture will also result in some supercell and QLCS tornado potential, especially from northern LA into MS, where the richest boundary-layer moisture (with dewpoints near/above 70 F) will reside. ...Ohio Valley vicinity... As a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough begins to phase with the shortwave approaching the MS Valley, a surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward toward Lower MI, accompanied by a substantial increase in low/midlevel flow fields. As this occurs, some increase in convective organization will be possible as ongoing convection moves northeastward across parts of the OH Valley into Lower MI. Increasingly scant instability may tend to limit the magnitude of the severe threat, but some potential for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado may continue through the late evening. There is also some potential for a band of low-topped convection with gusty winds to develop along a surging cold front prior to the end of the forecast period. ...Parts of central/eastern OK... A few strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of central/eastern OK along a southeastward-moving cold front. Increasing CINH and decreasing instability with time will lead to an eventual weakening trend, but very isolated hail and strong gusts cannot be ruled out through around 02Z. ..Dean.. 10/19/2025 $$  182 ACUS11 KWNS 190153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190152 TNZ000-MSZ000-190245- Mesoscale Discussion 2155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0852 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Areas affected...western Tennessee...northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626... Valid 190152Z - 190245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW626. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms across western Tennessee has seen an uptick in lightning activity over the last 30 minutes, with somewhat better organized radar presentation. Velocity from KNQA shows 40-45 kt winds around 1-1.5 KFT. Surface objective analysis would suggest that the southerly low-level jet is increasing around 30-40 kts. The thermodynamic profile remains weak, but increasing shear for organization may allow for a period of increasing damaging wind potential. At this time, uncertainty in longevity of this threat leads to low confidence in a downstream watch but local extension of WW626 may be warranted. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG... LAT...LON 35388945 35568939 35738922 35778889 35778871 35618850 35368852 35128863 34768903 34798912 34728930 34758948 34788957 35388945 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  865 ACUS11 KWNS 190159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190159 MSZ000-LAZ000-190400- Mesoscale Discussion 2156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0859 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 627... Valid 190159Z - 190400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 627 continues. SUMMARY...Organized strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across the northern two-thirds of ww627 over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Diffluent high-level flow is spreading across the Mid South/lower MS Valley ahead of approaching short-wave trough. Over the last few hours, large-scale ascent appears to be encouraging a broadening corridor of convection across western MS into northeast LA. LLJ is also increasing ahead of the short wave with 1km speeds in excess of 35kt as far south as central MS. VAD Profile from DGX supports this with 0-3km SRH around 250 m2/s2. The primary storm mode should remain QLCS, but a few isolated supercells are currently lifting northeast just ahead of the line into central portions of the watch. While buoyancy is somewhat limited over eastern portions of the state, some increase in buoyancy is expected immediately ahead of this convective complex. Greatest short-term risk appears to be across central portions of ww627. ..Darrow.. 10/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32409185 33169096 33949024 33698935 32468993 31909119 32409185 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  667 ACUS11 KWNS 190428 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190427 MSZ000-LAZ000-190630- Mesoscale Discussion 2157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 627... Valid 190427Z - 190630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 627 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues to shift southeast. DISCUSSION...Deep-layer flow is gradually veering across the lower MS Valley as approaching upper trough advances into western AR-east TX. Primary corridor of instability is located across LA into southwestern MS where 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE persists. Air mass has struggled to destabilize appreciably across eastern MS and latest lightning data supports this with weakening updrafts across the TN Valley into northeast MS. Given these trends, strongest convection is expected to sag southeast across the remainder of ww627 over the next several hours, aided in large part to the progressive short-wave trough advancing into the central Gulf States. Wind profiles remain supportive of supercells but the primary storm mode will likely be larger convective clusters and line segments. Wind damage should be the main severe risk but an isolated tornado or two is also possible with more discrete supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 10/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... LAT...LON 32109197 32909105 32948937 32288933 32099046 31509194 32109197 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  145 ACUS02 KWNS 190558 SWODY2 SPC AC 190556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A strong negative tilt mid-level trough is forecast to move over the Northeast early Monday as a second upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes. Strong ascent from these features will support surface cyclogenesis over the Saint Lawrence Valley and the upper Midwest. This will result in increased south/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of a surface cold front sweeping across southern New England. A second cold front will also move southeast across the Plains and Midwest with strong high pressure behind it. Showers and some low-topped thunderstorms are possible early Monday along the surging cold front across coastal New England. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes and over south Florida, but severe storm potential is limited. ...Southern New England... Strong forcing from the upper trough and fast-moving cold front will help force a shallow convective band along the front late Sunday into early Monday across the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. With little to no diurnal heating and only shallow moisture expected, any destabilization ahead of this convective band should be minimal (SBCAPE less than 300 J/kg). Most model guidance shows very thin cape profiles rooted just above the surface with poor low-level lapse rates over southern NY into MA/CT and RI. While some lightning and a sporadic strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with an locally stronger line segments, especially near the coast Monday morning; uncertainty on storm organization and sufficient surface-based destabilization suggests a severe risk is currently unlikely. Low-topped storms will remain possible beneath the upper trough over New England through the afternoon as the surface low occludes, but with an increasingly narrow surface-based warm sector and very weak instability. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2025 $$  263 ACUS01 KWNS 190602 SWODY1 SPC AC 190600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ALSO NEAR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized wind damage will be possible later today from the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late tonight, localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be possible from the northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New England. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt as it moves eastward from the MS Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A surface low initially over Lower MI will move north-northeastward toward Hudson Bay, with secondary low development expected in the upper Great Lakes vicinity late in the period. A cold front will surge southeastward through parts of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic. ...South AL into the FL Panhandle and southwest GA... Strong to locally severe storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south AL and the western FL Panhandle. Rich boundary-layer moisture, sufficient buoyancy, and initially favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support potential for locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado or two. As large-scale ascent lifts away from the region with time, a general weakening trend is currently expected from late morning into the afternoon. ...Central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic vicinity... Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day along/ahead of the cold front from the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic. However, low/midlevel flow will be strong, with 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. A band of low-topped convection (potentially with little or no lightning) will likely develop along the eastward-moving cold front, and may become capable of producing convectively enhanced strong/damaging gusts within this strong-flow regime. Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between 06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along the front into early Monday morning. ..Dean/Thornton.. 10/19/2025 $$  822 ACUS03 KWNS 190724 SWODY3 SPC AC 190723 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes South Florida, and Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper low over the East Coast will weaken as it phases with a second upper trough moving across the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold front will stretch from the surface low over the Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast and move southeastward through the day. Cool mid-level temperatures beneath the broad low will support very weak buoyancy and some shallow storms across the Great Lakes/Upper OH valley Tuesday afternoon. Southwest of the primary upper low, subsidence behind a strong northwesterly mid-level jet will strengthen post-frontal high pressure over the central US. Offshore flow associated with the high pressure is expected to scour surface moisture over much of the eastern CONUS outside of south FL and the central Gulf Coast. Isolated storms are possible along typical sea breeze boundaries, though with only weak ascent and little to no vertical shear. Thus, severe storms are unlikely over the CONUS Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2025 $$  824 ACUS11 KWNS 190848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190847 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191115- Mesoscale Discussion 2158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Areas affected...far southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190847Z - 191115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop this morning across southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing across the northern Gulf as a modest increase in the low-level jet has provided sufficient ascent within a moderately unstable airmass. The MOB VWP shows around 175 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with strengthening deep-layer shear. As a result, mini supercells which have developed within this environment will pose some threat for low-level mesoscyclone organization and an isolated tornado threat. Expect the tornado threat to remain isolated and confined to a small area near the coast. Therefore given the isolated threat and geographically limited region, no watch is anticipated. However, if a more organized threat develops and moves farther inland, a watch may need to be considered. ..Bentley/Smith.. 10/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30288735 30188797 30198843 30218850 30438854 30638834 30708778 30758729 30698710 30308714 30288735 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH  637 ACUS48 KWNS 190854 SWOD48 SPC AC 190853 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of the strong upper low over the eastern US, thunderstorm chances will be temporarily muted across the central and eastern US with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting available instability. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late D4/Wed over parts of the Southwest ahead of a southern stream shortwave trough moving onshore from the eastern Pacific. However, moisture and buoyancy should be quite sparse, suggesting only isolated coverage and negligible severe risk. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley D5-D8... The shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to move into the southern Plains as high pressure over the eastern US settles along the Gulf Coast. As the trough crosses the Rockies, a lee low should develop, allowing for modest low-level moisture return over parts of the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening of the airmass over TX/OK should support increasing thunderstorm chances through the end of the week, with thunderstorm potential extending into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley next weekend. Some severe potential is apparent as westerly flow aloft increases amidst the returning moisture/instability. However, details such as the degree of destabilization, timing/structure of the upper trough, and the potential for organized storms remains highly uncertain. 15% severe probabilities could be introduced in future outlook cycles should confidence in organized severe potential increase. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2025  769 ACUS01 KWNS 191237 SWODY1 SPC AC 191235 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this morning from south Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized wind damage will be possible later today from upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians into parts of the Mid Atlantic. Late tonight, localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado will be possible from the northern Mid Atlantic into parts of southern New England. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a powerful mid- to upper-level trough from western Ontario southward to the central Gulf Coast. This upper feature will attain a negative tilt as it moves towards the Eastern Seaboard tonight. A cyclone analyzed this morning over Lake Huron will move north-northeastward toward Hudson Bay, while a trailing cold front will push east-southeastward through parts of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic. ...FL Panhandle vicinity... An ongoing band of convection will continue to move eastward across the northeast Gulf Coast as the airmass attempts to slowly destabilize ahead of it. The latest surface observations confine the richer moisture to the immediate coastal counties (i.e., beaches and bays) of the FL Panhandle, where upper 60s to low 70s deg F dewpoints reside. Relatively poor lapse rates will limit updraft vigor and the overall coverage/intensity of strong to locally severe storm activity. Nonetheless, the moist low levels in the presence of moderate speed shear in the surface-2km layer will perhaps support an isolated threat for a brief/weak tornado and/or a damaging gust. This activity will likely weaken towards midday as large-scale ascent focuses farther north and away from the region. ...Eastern OH into the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic vicinity... Buoyancy will remain quite limited through most of the day along/ahead of the cold front from the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic. However, low/midlevel flow will be strong, with 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Recent convection-allowing model guidance agrees in showing a developing low-topped convective band initially over eastern OH spreading into western PA coincident with weak instability. Have correspondingly adjusted the western bound of the wind risk to account for this model trend. Late in the period, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the low 60s F) will advect inland into northern parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Buoyancy may become sufficient for somewhat deeper convection, as indicated by a modest increase in HREF calibrated thunderstorm probabilities between 06-12Z. With strong low-level flow/shear in place, locally damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany convection along the front into early Monday morning. ..Smith/Bentley.. 10/19/2025 $$  022 ACUS11 KWNS 191243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191242 INZ000-KYZ000-191415- Mesoscale Discussion 2159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Indiana and far northern Kentucky. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191242Z - 191415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this morning across southwest Indiana and far northern Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A focused area of ascent in the left-exit region of the upper jet and on the leading edge of the mid-level vorticity maximum has resulted in some stronger/fast-moving convection across southern Illinois this morning. A few estimated 60 mph wind gusts and a measured 62 mph wind gust have been associated with this cluster of storms thus far. While downstream instability remains weak (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis), the strong forcing should continue to support an isolated damaging wind threat as this cluster of storms moves across southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky this morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. ..Bentley/Smith.. 10/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 37698742 37988745 38228750 38368764 38548762 38778744 38938693 38968644 38968611 38768591 38418586 37998600 37628655 37478708 37698742 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  731 ACUS01 KWNS 191624 SWODY1 SPC AC 191623 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes may produce occasional strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado, this afternoon into the Appalachians and tonight into the Mid-Atlantic. The isolated severe-storm threat along the northeast Gulf coast will diminish by mid-late afternoon. ...Appalachians this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic tonight... A sharp midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt jet will progress from TN/KY late this morning to the Mid-Atlantic region by early Monday morning. An associated surface cyclone is in the process of occluding just north of Lake Superior, while a trailing cold front continues eastward across the upper OH Valley/Appalachians today and reaches the Atlantic coast/southern New England overnight. A narrow band of shallow convection/enhanced reflectivity coincides with the front/wind shift from eastern KY into OH as of 16z. West of the surface wind shift, low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes continues with the primary midlevel vorticity max/left-exit region of the jet across central KY/middle TN. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the depth of the frontal convection will be marginal for charge separation and lightning production. Still, there will be some potential for downward momentum transfer of ~50 kt low-midlevel flow and isolated wind damage with the consolidated convective band this afternoon from eastern OH/KY and WV eastward into the Appalachians, and overnight into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Northeast Gulf coast this afternoon... The remnants of early morning convection persist near and south of the FL Panhandle in association with a pre-frontal wind shift and a weakening southern stream shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent is expected to weaken through the afternoon and substantial inland destabilization is unlikely given widespread clouds and weakening southerly flow components with time. Thus, any remaining severe threat will be confined to the coast and will likely end later this afternoon. ...WA coast today... A midlevel trough with associated cold air aloft and steep low-midlevel lapse rates is spreading inland. A few low-topped thunderstorms have been observed this morning along the WA coast, and a few additional storms will be possible for the next 6 hours or so. Vertical shear is sufficiently strong for some storm organization, but the odds of sustained supercells appear too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 10/19/2025 $$  088 ACUS02 KWNS 191712 SWODY2 SPC AC 191711 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast across New England on Monday. At the same time, a surface low will develop east across Quebec with a trailing surface front moving across New England. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning along the front within a warm advection regime. Southeasterly low-level flow will support a narrow warm sector across the region, though instability will remain muted given poor lapse rates. Still, strong mid/upper flow could foster gusty winds as the front moves across New England through early afternoon, though severe potential will remain low. Additional thunderstorms will be possible further south across FL where the southern extent of the New England surface front will arc southwestward across the FL Peninsula. A moist boundary layer and modest instability may support isolated thunderstorms during peak heating, but weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Further west, another upper trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley. In tandem with the upper system, a surface front will sweep across the Plains into the Midwest. Given a prior cold front passage, the airmass will remain dry and thunderstorm activity along the front will be limited. Cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a lightning flash or two across the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes vicinity, but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 10/19/2025 $$  701 ACUS03 KWNS 191912 SWODY3 SPC AC 191910 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday. A surface low will migrate across the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front developing southeast across TX and the much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Rich boundary layer moisture across coastal TX into LA will be in place ahead of the front, aiding in weak to moderate destabilization through peak heating. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused well to the northeast, but ascent along the front may support isolated thunderstorms. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but a couple of stronger storms could produce gusty winds. More robust updrafts will likely be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates/warm midlevel temps. Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley beneath the cold core of the upper low/trough, and across south FL within a moist and unstable environment. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/19/2025 $$  480 ACUS01 KWNS 191958 SWODY1 SPC AC 191956 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes may produce occasional strong-damaging gusts, and possibly a brief/weak tornado, through the remainder of this afternoon into the Appalachians and tonight into the Mid-Atlantic. ...20Z Update... Given the increasing lack of large-scale support and the weakening trend of convection near the west-central coast of Florida, severe probabilities have been removed from the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend. A shallow band of convection continues north and eastward from the upper Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. The strongest mid-level ascent will continue into the Mid-Atlantic this evening. Despite minimal buoyancy, strong low/mid-level winds will support sporadic damaging wind gust potential. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025/ ...Appalachians this afternoon into the Mid-Atlantic tonight... A sharp midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt jet will progress from TN/KY late this morning to the Mid-Atlantic region by early Monday morning. An associated surface cyclone is in the process of occluding just north of Lake Superior, while a trailing cold front continues eastward across the upper OH Valley/Appalachians today and reaches the Atlantic coast/southern New England overnight. A narrow band of shallow convection/enhanced reflectivity coincides with the front/wind shift from eastern KY into OH as of 16z. West of the surface wind shift, low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes continues with the primary midlevel vorticity max/left-exit region of the jet across central KY/middle TN. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) and the depth of the frontal convection will be marginal for charge separation and lightning production. Still, there will be some potential for downward momentum transfer of ~50 kt low-midlevel flow and isolated wind damage with the consolidated convective band this afternoon from eastern OH/KY and WV eastward into the Appalachians, and overnight into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Northeast Gulf coast this afternoon... The remnants of early morning convection persist near and south of the FL Panhandle in association with a pre-frontal wind shift and a weakening southern stream shortwave trough. Forcing for ascent is expected to weaken through the afternoon and substantial inland destabilization is unlikely given widespread clouds and weakening southerly flow components with time. Thus, any remaining severe threat will be confined to the coast and will likely end later this afternoon. ...WA coast today... A midlevel trough with associated cold air aloft and steep low-midlevel lapse rates is spreading inland. A few low-topped thunderstorms have been observed this morning along the WA coast, and a few additional storms will be possible for the next 6 hours or so. Vertical shear is sufficiently strong for some storm organization, but the odds of sustained supercells appear too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities. $$  065 ACUS11 KWNS 192026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192025 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-192300- Mesoscale Discussion 2160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern West Virginia...adjacent portions of Maryland...and western Virginia into northwestern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192025Z - 192300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A band of showers may continue to be accompanied by brief, localized damaging wind gusts while spreading across and east of the Blue Ridge through 7-8 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...Amplified, deep troughing, from the surface through the troposphere, and associated strong ambient wind fields, are in the process of overspreading much of the Lower Great Lakes and Appalachians vicinity. Within this regime, near/just ahead of the trough axis, a narrow band of convection with heavier showers is being supported by strong forcing for ascent aided by low-level frontogenesis. This is forecast to continue spreading east of the crest of the Appalachians, across and east of the Blue Ridge through 23-00Z. Based on forecast soundings, very weak boundary-layer based CAPE contributing to this activity is being supported by surface dew points increasing through the 50s F, but this generally capped around or below 500 mb. While relatively warm equilibrium temperatures suggest that potential for charge separation supportive of lightning is rather low, downward mixing of 40-50+ kt ambient southwesterly mean flow in the lowest 3-6 km AGL, within the heavier rain band, could continue to support brief, localized damaging wind gusts with its passage. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 10/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP... LAT...LON 39147936 39737874 39507757 38117820 36277982 35938100 36168145 37058066 38367982 38877950 39147936 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  385 ACUS11 KWNS 192359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192359 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-200230- Mesoscale Discussion 2161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Areas affected...Central PA into parts of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192359Z - 200230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts are possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped rain bands are ongoing this evening from central PA into parts of the Mid Atlantic, along and just ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. Buoyancy is very weak to negligible (with SBCAPE of around 100-200 J/kg or less) and no lightning is being produced with these bands, but strong ascent related to a vigorous mid/upper-level trough approaching the region will sustain this activity through the evening, with some consolidation possible along the cold front. Peak wind gusts have generally been in the 40-50 mph range, but with flow increasing into the 35-50 kt range within the 1-3 km AGL layer (as sampled by regional VWPs), isolated damaging gusts will be possible within the weakly convective rain bands as they approach the Mid Atlantic region. ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 37757677 36977738 36587799 36307902 36338003 36887951 38027840 39997754 41137796 41297719 41037644 40437630 39887631 39017644 37757677 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH