797 ACUS01 KWNS 080047 SWODY1 SPC AC 080045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST THU MAR 07 2013 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... LITTLE...IF ANY...LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING NOSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT ...IT STILL APPEARS THAT DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LOWER LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOWER THRESHOLD THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...PERHAPS HIGHEST NEAR SAN DIEGO DURING THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 03/08/2013  537 ACUS01 KWNS 080558 SWODY1 SPC AC 080555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST THU MAR 07 2013 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE SPLIT BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PHASING OF ONE OF THESE PERTURBATIONS...MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTHWARD...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. MUCH OF THIS MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER...ABOVE A LINGERING COOLER/STABLE SURFACE BASED AIR MASS...AND BELOW RELATIVELY WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR. SUBSTANTIVE NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MUCH SLOWER AND CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ADVECT NORTHWEST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS PROBABLY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...AND THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS... MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY PROVIDES ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT FORCING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO 09/00Z. BUT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09/01-03Z...GENERALLY AFTER DARK...WHEN AN INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY COINCIDE WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE MAY JUST BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AT THIS TIME...BUT FORCING PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT... IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS A BIT UNCLEAR...DUE TO THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY LEAVE A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEFORE RADIATIONAL COOLING STABILIZES THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...AND FORECAST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE. LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND STORMS BASED IN A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER TO THE NORTH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SAN DIEGO AND ADJACENT SRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS... DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMBIENT VORTICITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH CONVECTION AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN NEAR COASTAL AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY VERY WEAK CAPE...AND RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WHILE SOME HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME. A WATERSPOUT OR TWO ALSO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN COASTAL WATERS...BUT THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER INLAND AREAS ALSO SEEMS MINIMAL. ...PHOENIX AND ADJACENT LOWER DESERTS... SIMILAR TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK/SMALL...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN STRONGER CONVECTION. ..KERR/ROGERS.. 03/08/2013  133 ACUS02 KWNS 080602 SWODY2 SPC AC 080601 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL TX TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS AN 80 T0 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN KS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL TX. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE MODELS ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR DALLAS-FORT WORTH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON GRADUALLY ERODE A CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14 C COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND CELLS MATURE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND UPON STORM MODE. ...CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN KS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW NEAR THE KS-NEB STATE LINE. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD AID AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED STORMS ON THE NRN END OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER 50S F AND SBCAPE VALUES COULD BE AROUND 500 J/KG. FOR THIS REASON...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT...A THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 03/08/2013  782 ACUS02 KWNS 080609 SWODY2 SPC AC 080608 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL TX TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... CORRECTED WRN EDGE OF THUNDERLINE IN CNTRL PLAINS ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS AN 80 T0 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN KS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL TX. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE MODELS ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR DALLAS-FORT WORTH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON GRADUALLY ERODE A CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14 C COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND CELLS MATURE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND UPON STORM MODE. ...CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN KS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW NEAR THE KS-NEB STATE LINE. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD AID AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED STORMS ON THE NRN END OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER 50S F AND SBCAPE VALUES COULD BE AROUND 500 J/KG. FOR THIS REASON...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT...A THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 03/08/2013  670 ACUS03 KWNS 080713 SWODY3 SPC AC 080711 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM WRN TN SWWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO SE TX AS IS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH OF JACKSON MS SWWD TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA AT 00Z/MON SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WHEN SFC TEMPS PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS WRN MS...NCNTRL LA AND FAR SE AR WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IF A LINE SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 03/08/2013  516 ACUS48 KWNS 080944 SWOD48 SPC AC 080943 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DEVELOPING AN MCS FROM TN SWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WHERE TO PAN OUT...THEN A SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF TN...MS AND AL ON MONDAY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE MID 50S F TO THE LOWER 60S F. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING THE CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ON TUESDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS VARY MARKEDLY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND THE GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NERN STATES. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TUESDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. AT THIS POINT...A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON/DAY 4 IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY BUT PREDICTABILITY CONCERNING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT APPEAR LOW. ..BROYLES.. 03/08/2013  182 ACUS01 KWNS 081249 SWODY1 SPC AC 081247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN OF TX...AND FAR WRN OK... ...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN OF TX...AND FAR WRN OK... A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS OFF THE SRN CA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ASHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN TRACK EWD/ENEWD OVER THE SWRN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...THE LEADING EDGE OF A 500-MB JET MAX CONTAINING CORE SPEEDS OF 60-90 KT WILL EXTEND OVER THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECEDE THE LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS -- IN EXCESS OF 90 METERS PER 12 HOURS -- AND STRONGER DCVA WILL NOT EMERGE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED NWD/NNWWD TO THE E OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SW KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND FARTHER S INTO SW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE ACCOMPANYING A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING INTO THE AREA...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION. AND...WITH THE LAGGING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT...CONVECTION ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL AS LATE AS 23Z-03Z. BY THAT TIME...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HAVE ONLY REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE...SUPPORTING 300-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG/DEEP...AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY OVER SERN CO...AND THE CAP SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TX SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND PANHANDLE BEFORE REACHING FAR WRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE DEEP SHEAR OF 40-60 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW AROUND 700 MB DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL VEER-BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. AND...WITH THE MARGINAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE IS LOW. STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE CIRCULATIONS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO SMALLER-SCALE CLUSTERS/QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO 04Z-05Z. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...MAINLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...OWING TO 250-350 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/STRENGTHENING CINH AND A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND INTO SRN KS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM STRENGTHENS ATOP THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES REMOVED FROM ANY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTING ENEWD/NEWD INTO WRN OK AND SRN KS THROUGH EARLY SAT. SFC-BASED CINH WILL LIKELY BE TOO SUBSTANTIAL FOR ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA AND PORTIONS OF SRN AZ... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ACCOMPANYING A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY ACQUIRE ROTATION. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND A MARINE WATERSPOUT OVER THE SRN CA COASTAL WATERS...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT SUCH THAT SVR PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..COHEN/HART.. 03/08/2013  912 ACUS11 KWNS 081325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081325 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-081730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MA/FAR SRN NH/RI/CT/LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081325Z - 081730Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO NERN CT. CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS THESE GREATER SNOWFALL RATES WILL SPREAD SWWD AND SWD ACROSS MORE OF CT AND POSSIBLY AFFECT PARTS OF LONG ISLAND PRIOR TO THIS WINTER WEATHER HAZARD DIMINISHING AROUND 17-18Z. DISCUSSION...AT 13Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A 30-45 MILE WIDE BAND OF SNOW /EMBEDDED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES/ EXTENDING FROM NERN CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND ERN MA TO FAR SERN NH. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA EXTENDING FROM THE NWRN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...ATTENDANT TO A 50-55 KT ENELY LLJ AS SAMPLED BY BOSTON MA WSR-88D VWP DATA AT 1254Z. 06Z NAM/10Z HRRR/00Z WRF-NSSL 4 KM ALL SUGGEST THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXPAND SWWD/SWD ACROSS MORE OF CT THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AFFECT PARTS OF LONG ISLAND WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. THESE MODELS ALSO INDICATED THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 17-18Z AS THE CURRENT STRONG LLJ WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS SWD OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER 18Z. ..PETERS/COHEN.. 03/08/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 42727092 42017081 41477173 40947221 40807308 40867341 41397342 41987297 42387251 42737194 42957138 42727092  266 ACUS11 KWNS 081325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081325 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-081730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MA/FAR SRN NH/RI/CT/LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081325Z - 081730Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO NERN CT. CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS THESE GREATER SNOWFALL RATES WILL SPREAD SWWD AND SWD ACROSS MORE OF CT AND POSSIBLY AFFECT PARTS OF LONG ISLAND PRIOR TO THIS WINTER WEATHER HAZARD DIMINISHING AROUND 17-18Z. DISCUSSION...AT 13Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A 30-45 MILE WIDE BAND OF SNOW /EMBEDDED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES/ EXTENDING FROM NERN CT THROUGH CENTRAL AND ERN MA TO FAR SERN NH. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA EXTENDING FROM THE NWRN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...ATTENDANT TO A 50-55 KT ENELY LLJ AS SAMPLED BY BOSTON MA WSR-88D VWP DATA AT 1254Z. 06Z NAM/10Z HRRR/00Z WRF-NSSL 4 KM ALL SUGGEST THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXPAND SWWD/SWD ACROSS MORE OF CT THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AFFECT PARTS OF LONG ISLAND WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. THESE MODELS ALSO INDICATED THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 17-18Z AS THE CURRENT STRONG LLJ WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS SWD OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER 18Z. ..PETERS/COHEN.. 03/08/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 42727092 42017081 41477173 40947221 40807308 40867341 41397342 41987297 42387251 42737194 42957138 42727092  585 ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGIONS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS IS DOMINATED BY TWO PRIMARY CYCLONES -- ONE OVER ATLC S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH STG VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDING WWD OVER MID-ATLC REGION...AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA OFFSHORE SRN CA. AS MID-ATLC PERTURBATION MOVES OFFSHORE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. MEANWHILE...MAIN PAC LOW WILL TURN EWD ACROSS SRN CA...REACHING NEAR AZ/NM BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW -- INCLUDING ROUGHLY 120-KT 250-MB JET MAX AND ELONGATED RIBBON OF 80-90 KT 500-MB WINDS -- WILL SHIFT EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN AZ AND NRN MEX..IN STEP WITH PROGRESS OF CA CYCLONE. SMALLER MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN ORE. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...LOSING IDENTITY WITH TIME AS ITS VORTICITY FIELD IS ENTRAINED INTO TRAILING PORTION OF CA PERTURBATION. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM...AND IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD OVER MO/AR THIS EVENING. AT SFC...15Z CHART SHOWED CYCLONE OVER SRN PORTION KS/CO BORDER REGION...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH SSWWD OVER ERN NM. DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY FROM BIG-BEND REGION GENERALLY NNEWD ACROSS WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...RETREATING WWD SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SFC LOW...INITIALLY MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- WAS EVIDENT OVER SRN NV IN DRA-LAS AREA...WITH PAC COLD FRONT ARCHING GENERALLY SWD OVER NRN BAJA. INTERMOUNTAIN LOW AND LEE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE OVER ERN CO AROUND END OF PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...PAC COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO RETREATED DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK NEAR DRYLINE...BUT POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM AFTER DARK...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PAC COLD FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT CATCH UP TO DRYLINE. GREATEST UNCONDITIONAL SVR THREAT IS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ERN CO/WRN KS INVOF SFC LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT. AS LEADING/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS AWAY FROM REGION... 1. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR...ACTING TO TEMPORARILY REINFORCE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH WEAK DAVA/DVM WHILE EWD ADVECTION OF REMAINING EML CONTINUES. 2. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE AWAY...LEAVING BROAD GAP OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FOR REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT UVV PLUME...NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/IR IMAGERY OVER AZ. 3. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN FROM COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION FARTHER E AND STRENGTHENING MIXING ALONG AND W OF BOUNDARY. W TX MESONET DATA INDICATES LOW-50S F SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REACHED AREA BETWEEN CDS-LBB. THOUGH MOISTENING VIA ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS IN NARROW CORRIDOR E OF DRYLINE BY 00Z...FROM ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK SWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE E OF CAPROCK OVER SRN PLAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEARER TO DRYLINE. BUOYANCY ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN NWD OVER WRN KS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. ROBUST MID-UPPER LIFT IS NOT FCST TO REACH OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT -- LIKELY AFTER 03Z. AS SUCH...EML-RELATED CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN STG...DELAYING ONSET OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION WHILE LIMITING BOTH ITS SWD EXTENT AND DIURNAL COVERAGE. STILL...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DARK INVOF DRYLINE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER AND AT LEAST ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY SUCH TSTMS...SUPPORTED BY INITIALLY HIGH LCL AND DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEEP SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH EVENING AS MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES E OF DRYLINE...TROUGH ALOFT APCHS...AND BROAD/45-55 KT LLJ TAKES SHAPE FROM W TX TO SERN NEB. RELATED HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT SHOULD YIELD 250-450 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH IN SUPPORT OF STORM-SCALE ROTATION. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 06Z...WITH INCREASING HAIL RISK INTO EVENING. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NON-ZERO...IS MITIGATED BY LACK OF ROBUST MOISTURE...AND BY LIMITED TEMPORAL WINDOW BETWEEN EVENING LOWERING OF LCL AND LOSS OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS/GARNER.. 03/08/2013  495 ACUS01 KWNS 081648 SWODY1 SPC AC 081646 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGIONS... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID GENERATION ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS IS DOMINATED BY TWO PRIMARY CYCLONES -- ONE OVER ATLC S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH STG VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDING WWD OVER MID-ATLC REGION...AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA OFFSHORE SRN CA. AS MID-ATLC PERTURBATION MOVES OFFSHORE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. MEANWHILE...MAIN PAC LOW WILL TURN EWD ACROSS SRN CA...REACHING NEAR AZ/NM BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW -- INCLUDING ROUGHLY 120-KT 250-MB JET MAX AND ELONGATED RIBBON OF 80-90 KT 500-MB WINDS -- WILL SHIFT EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN AZ AND NRN MEX..IN STEP WITH PROGRESS OF CA CYCLONE. SMALLER MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN ORE. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...LOSING IDENTITY WITH TIME AS ITS VORTICITY FIELD IS ENTRAINED INTO TRAILING PORTION OF CA PERTURBATION. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM...AND IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD OVER MO/AR THIS EVENING. AT SFC...15Z CHART SHOWED CYCLONE OVER SRN PORTION KS/CO BORDER REGION...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH SSWWD OVER ERN NM. DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY FROM BIG-BEND REGION GENERALLY NNEWD ACROSS WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...RETREATING WWD SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SFC LOW...INITIALLY MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- WAS EVIDENT OVER SRN NV IN DRA-LAS AREA...WITH PAC COLD FRONT ARCHING GENERALLY SWD OVER NRN BAJA. INTERMOUNTAIN LOW AND LEE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE OVER ERN CO AROUND END OF PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...PAC COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO RETREATED DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK NEAR DRYLINE...BUT POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM AFTER DARK...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PAC COLD FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT CATCH UP TO DRYLINE. GREATEST UNCONDITIONAL SVR THREAT IS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ERN CO/WRN KS INVOF SFC LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT. AS LEADING/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS AWAY FROM REGION... 1. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR...ACTING TO TEMPORARILY REINFORCE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH WEAK DAVA/DVM WHILE EWD ADVECTION OF REMAINING EML CONTINUES. 2. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE AWAY...LEAVING BROAD GAP OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FOR REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT UVV PLUME...NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/IR IMAGERY OVER AZ. 3. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN FROM COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION FARTHER E AND STRENGTHENING MIXING ALONG AND W OF BOUNDARY. W TX MESONET DATA INDICATES LOW-50S F SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REACHED AREA BETWEEN CDS-LBB. THOUGH MOISTENING VIA ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS IN NARROW CORRIDOR E OF DRYLINE BY 00Z...FROM ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK SWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE E OF CAPROCK OVER SRN PLAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEARER TO DRYLINE. BUOYANCY ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN NWD OVER WRN KS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. ROBUST MID-UPPER LIFT IS NOT FCST TO REACH OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT -- LIKELY AFTER 03Z. AS SUCH...EML-RELATED CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN STG...DELAYING ONSET OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION WHILE LIMITING BOTH ITS SWD EXTENT AND DIURNAL COVERAGE. STILL...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DARK INVOF DRYLINE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER AND AT LEAST ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY SUCH TSTMS...SUPPORTED BY INITIALLY HIGH LCL AND DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEEP SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH EVENING AS MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES E OF DRYLINE...TROUGH ALOFT APCHS...AND BROAD/45-55 KT LLJ TAKES SHAPE FROM W TX TO SERN NEB. RELATED HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT SHOULD YIELD 250-450 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH IN SUPPORT OF STORM-SCALE ROTATION. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 06Z...WITH INCREASING HAIL RISK INTO EVENING. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NON-ZERO...IS MITIGATED BY LACK OF ROBUST MOISTURE...AND BY LIMITED TEMPORAL WINDOW BETWEEN EVENING LOWERING OF LCL AND LOSS OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013  389 ACUS02 KWNS 081726 SWODY2 SPC AC 081725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- PART OF LARGER TROUGH COMPRISED OF PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM COMPONENTS -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW /INITIALLY OVER ERN CO/WRN KS/ AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT /INITIALLY TRAILING SWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX/ WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. BY SUNSET...EXPECT THE LOW TO BE APPROACHING CENTRAL KS WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX/THE HILL COUNTRY...AND THEN CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY -- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM KS SWD TO TX. ...SRN PLAINS... ANY CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN TX SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE...AND IS LIKELY TO FURTHER WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE LIKELY TO REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE FROM SRN OK SWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM RE-INITIATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NWRN TX -- AND POSSIBLY NWD INTO CENTRAL OK -- INVOF THE FRONT IN THE 21Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME...WITH STORMS THEN DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING. WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING OF THE FLOW FIELD TOPPED BY SWLYS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO 60-PLUS KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO CONFINE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO THE FRONTAL ZONE -- AND THUS LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY TO PREDOMINATE -- EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- ESPECIALLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND SWWD TOWARD THE DEL RIO/COTULLA/LAREDO REGION. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE KS/NEB REGION -- POSSIBLY ATOP LOCAL HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A WEAK DRY SLOT...AN AFTERNOON PEAK IN SURFACE-BASED CAPE COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF WRN KS/S CENTRAL NEB. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF HEATING/CAPE DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2013  263 ACUS11 KWNS 081924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081923 AZZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 081923Z - 082100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE SRN HALF OF AZ...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. A WW IS UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...AT 19Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING SRN AZ. SURFACE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASCENT IS AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING AT THE SURFACE IS AIDING IN MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...EXIT REGION OF 40+ KT MIDLEVEL SWLY JET IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 50 KT...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. ..GARNER/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 32201375 32471390 33301367 33781275 33601038 32800935 31740970 31331028 31501162 32201375  592 ACUS11 KWNS 081924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081923 AZZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 081923Z - 082100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE SRN HALF OF AZ...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. A WW IS UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...AT 19Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING SRN AZ. SURFACE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASCENT IS AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING AT THE SURFACE IS AIDING IN MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...EXIT REGION OF 40+ KT MIDLEVEL SWLY JET IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 50 KT...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. ..GARNER/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 32201375 32471390 33301367 33781275 33601038 32800935 31740970 31331028 31501162 32201375  618 ACUS01 KWNS 081933 SWODY1 SPC AC 081931 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS NECESSARY TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH LATEST DATA SUGGESTING THAT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGE INSERTED THIS FORECAST WILL BE INCLUSION OF A MARGINAL /5% PROBABILITY/ FOR HAIL POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS IN A STRONGER CELL OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING SRN CA ATTM. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION ON THIS AREA...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #0251. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013/ CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID GENERATION ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS IS DOMINATED BY TWO PRIMARY CYCLONES -- ONE OVER ATLC S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH STG VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDING WWD OVER MID-ATLC REGION...AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA OFFSHORE SRN CA. AS MID-ATLC PERTURBATION MOVES OFFSHORE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. MEANWHILE...MAIN PAC LOW WILL TURN EWD ACROSS SRN CA...REACHING NEAR AZ/NM BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW -- INCLUDING ROUGHLY 120-KT 250-MB JET MAX AND ELONGATED RIBBON OF 80-90 KT 500-MB WINDS -- WILL SHIFT EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN AZ AND NRN MEX..IN STEP WITH PROGRESS OF CA CYCLONE. SMALLER MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN ORE. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...LOSING IDENTITY WITH TIME AS ITS VORTICITY FIELD IS ENTRAINED INTO TRAILING PORTION OF CA PERTURBATION. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM...AND IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD OVER MO/AR THIS EVENING. AT SFC...15Z CHART SHOWED CYCLONE OVER SRN PORTION KS/CO BORDER REGION...WITH SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH SSWWD OVER ERN NM. DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY FROM BIG-BEND REGION GENERALLY NNEWD ACROSS WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...RETREATING WWD SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SFC LOW...INITIALLY MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- WAS EVIDENT OVER SRN NV IN DRA-LAS AREA...WITH PAC COLD FRONT ARCHING GENERALLY SWD OVER NRN BAJA. INTERMOUNTAIN LOW AND LEE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE OVER ERN CO AROUND END OF PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...PAC COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO RETREATED DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK NEAR DRYLINE...BUT POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM AFTER DARK...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PAC COLD FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT CATCH UP TO DRYLINE. GREATEST UNCONDITIONAL SVR THREAT IS OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ERN CO/WRN KS INVOF SFC LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT. AS LEADING/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS AWAY FROM REGION... 1. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR...ACTING TO TEMPORARILY REINFORCE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH WEAK DAVA/DVM WHILE EWD ADVECTION OF REMAINING EML CONTINUES. 2. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE AWAY...LEAVING BROAD GAP OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FOR REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT UVV PLUME...NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/IR IMAGERY OVER AZ. 3. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN FROM COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION FARTHER E AND STRENGTHENING MIXING ALONG AND W OF BOUNDARY. W TX MESONET DATA INDICATES LOW-50S F SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REACHED AREA BETWEEN CDS-LBB. THOUGH MOISTENING VIA ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS IN NARROW CORRIDOR E OF DRYLINE BY 00Z...FROM ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK SWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE E OF CAPROCK OVER SRN PLAINS...SOMEWHAT LESS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEARER TO DRYLINE. BUOYANCY ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN NWD OVER WRN KS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. ROBUST MID-UPPER LIFT IS NOT FCST TO REACH OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT -- LIKELY AFTER 03Z. AS SUCH...EML-RELATED CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN STG...DELAYING ONSET OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION WHILE LIMITING BOTH ITS SWD EXTENT AND DIURNAL COVERAGE. STILL...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BEFORE DARK INVOF DRYLINE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER AND AT LEAST ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY SUCH TSTMS...SUPPORTED BY INITIALLY HIGH LCL AND DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DEEP SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH EVENING AS MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES E OF DRYLINE...TROUGH ALOFT APCHS...AND BROAD/45-55 KT LLJ TAKES SHAPE FROM W TX TO SERN NEB. RELATED HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT SHOULD YIELD 250-450 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH IN SUPPORT OF STORM-SCALE ROTATION. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 06Z...WITH INCREASING HAIL RISK INTO EVENING. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NON-ZERO...IS MITIGATED BY LACK OF ROBUST MOISTURE...AND BY LIMITED TEMPORAL WINDOW BETWEEN EVENING LOWERING OF LCL AND LOSS OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW.  057 ACUS11 KWNS 082143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082143 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND EXTREME SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 082143Z - 090015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE AND LATER INTO PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN KS. TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT INITIATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 23-01Z. DISCUSSION...DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE NEAR AMARILLO SWD THROUGH WRN TX. DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DRYLINE SURGING EWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY HAS RECENTLY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETREAT WWD AS MIXING DIMINISHES WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CHARACTER OF CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND NAM PFCS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL CAPPED EAST OF DRYLINE...WHERE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ADVECTING NWWD BENEATH AN EML. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NWD WHERE AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CURRENTLY EXISTS EAST OF THE CAP ROCK. HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH NM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WITH A PACIFIC FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOIST AXIS OVER WRN TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAP...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE TO AOA 45 KT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS SHOULD KEEP TORNADO WINDOW RELATIVELY SMALL. ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32120171 32630245 34620209 36590206 37280164 36900021 34839996 33150071 32120171  747 ACUS11 KWNS 082143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082143 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND EXTREME SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 082143Z - 090015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE AND LATER INTO PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN KS. TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT INITIATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 23-01Z. DISCUSSION...DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE NEAR AMARILLO SWD THROUGH WRN TX. DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN THE DRYLINE SURGING EWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY HAS RECENTLY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETREAT WWD AS MIXING DIMINISHES WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CHARACTER OF CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND NAM PFCS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL CAPPED EAST OF DRYLINE...WHERE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ADVECTING NWWD BENEATH AN EML. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NWD WHERE AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CURRENTLY EXISTS EAST OF THE CAP ROCK. HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH NM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WITH A PACIFIC FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOIST AXIS OVER WRN TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING CAP...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE TO AOA 45 KT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS SHOULD KEEP TORNADO WINDOW RELATIVELY SMALL. ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/08/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32120171 32630245 34620209 36590206 37280164 36900021 34839996 33150071 32120171