427 ACUS01 KWNS 020018 SWODY1 SPC AC 020016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CST FRI MAR 01 2013 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... TSTMS FAILED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY MINIMAL BUOYANCY BASED ON 00Z FWD RAOB. WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...ANY POTENTIAL TSTM THREAT HAS ENDED. ..GRAMS.. 03/02/2013  570 ACUS01 KWNS 020457 SWODY1 SPC AC 020455 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 PM CST FRI MAR 01 2013 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS AS A WRN RIDGE FLATTENS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA BY EARLY SUN. DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS WILL MITIGATE TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...MINIMAL BUOYANCY AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING BEYOND POSSIBLY A FEW/VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..GRAMS/COHEN.. 03/02/2013  429 ACUS02 KWNS 020515 SWODY2 SPC AC 020514 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CST FRI MAR 01 2013 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT NLY BRANCH AND DIG ESEWD TOWARD CNTRL CA SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUCH THAT WEAK BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 200 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IF SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE DEEPEST UPDRAFTS MAY PENETRATE LEVELS NECESSARY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..DARROW.. 03/02/2013  673 ACUS03 KWNS 020801 SWODY3 SPC AC 020800 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CST SAT MAR 02 2013 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO TN VALLEY... CA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BEFORE TRANSLATING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO NRN ROCKIES DIGGING UPPER LOW. AIRMASS MODIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL BE SLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF 50S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY 05/00Z WITH MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY AID A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NM/NW TX. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL INTERACT WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS AR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB WILL YIELD MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. WHILE SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NERN AR INTO TN IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 03/02/2013  814 ACUS48 KWNS 020919 SWOD48 SPC AC 020918 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 AM CST SAT MAR 02 2013 VALID 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SPEED MAX THAT SHOULD DIG TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY MID WEEK. INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK WITH THIS FEATURE. LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG ALONG THE CA COAST INTO THE SWRN U.S/NRN MEXICO. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS BY 09/12Z BUT LARGE SCALE TRENDS SUGGEST MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING PROFILES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. ..DARROW.. 03/02/2013  396 ACUS01 KWNS 021219 SWODY1 SPC AC 021216 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 AM CST SAT MAR 02 2013 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... A PRONOUNCED...WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED THIS PERIOD BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE FAR NERN PACIFIC INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW. INCREASING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD/JIRAK.. 03/02/2013  044 ACUS01 KWNS 021607 SWODY1 SPC AC 021605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST SAT MAR 02 2013 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE FAR NERN PACIFIC INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..BUNTING.. 03/02/2013  124 ACUS02 KWNS 021729 SWODY2 SPC AC 021727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SAT MAR 02 2013 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL DE-AMPLIFY TO A DEGREE ON SUNDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE REGIME OTHERWISE PERSISTS. A PROMINENT EASTERN STATES TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE DUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN GENERAL...COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE TSTMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CA. ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA... MID-UPPER COLD POCKET /-20C TO -24C/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN CA ON SUNDAY. GIVEN MODEST HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...A FEW TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY/NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA VICINITY. NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. ..GUYER.. 03/02/2013  155 ACUS01 KWNS 021949 SWODY1 SPC AC 021946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST SAT MAR 02 2013 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...20Z UPDATE... NO CHANGES NEEDED. ..GUYER.. 03/02/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST SAT MAR 02 2013/ ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BE DAMPENED BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE FAR NERN PACIFIC INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW TONIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.