723 ACUS01 KWNS 100055 SWODY1 SPC AC 100053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OK AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX... ...SERN OK/TX... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND TX OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED AND STABLE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ASCENT INVOF FRONT WILL ERODE THE CAP...ALLOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE FLOW FIELD IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO EXISTS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO N CENTRAL/NERN TX. OTHERWISE...MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST WILL PERSIST AS STORMS SHIFT EWD TOWARD WRN AR AND ACROSS NERN TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 02/10/2013  028 ACUS11 KWNS 100512 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100512 TXZ000-OKZ000-100715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 100512Z - 100715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE BY 06-07Z. DISCUSSION...A BAND OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING FROM ROUGHLY SJT TO SPS. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH A 50-55 KT SSWLY LLJ AXIS AND THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ASCENT AND MOISTENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING THE CAP NOTED IN 00Z OBSERVED AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL INTO N TX WHERE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING BY 1-2 F PER HOUR. WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR THE SURFACE...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..THOMPSON/KERR.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33519660 32779675 31319800 30939871 30969956 31359994 31989962 33419863 33719821 33899789 33829698 33519660  476 ACUS02 KWNS 100518 SWODY2 SPC AC 100516 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/CNTRL GULF COAST... A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE 4-CORNERS LATE DAY1 THEN EJECT ACROSS NRN NM AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 90-100KT TRANSLATES TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE 4-CORNERS INTO NM...AIDED IN PART BY DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX. DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/DEEPER LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE NWD ACROSS TX WITHIN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. IN FACT LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX IF LIFTING NEARLY SATURATED PARCELS FROM 850MB ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX DUE IN LARGE PART TO STRENGTHENING LLJ. HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO THEN HIGHER SEVERE PROBS/SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE NIGHT HAIL THREAT. FARTHER EAST...EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS MAY TRANSPIRE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL ELONGATE ITSELF NEAR THE COAST ACROSS SRN LA TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ASIDE FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A BIT OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IT/S NOT REAL CLEAR THAT A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL INSTIGATE TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP ALONG NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH A ROGUE SUPERCELL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ..DARROW.. 02/10/2013  060 ACUS11 KWNS 100553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100553 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-101100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-NERN IA / SERN MN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 100553Z - 101100Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER E-CNTRL AND N-CNTRL IA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS. DISCUSSION...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM W-CNTRL IA INTO NERN MO IS MOVING NEWD AS THE MAIN BODY OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF A 60 KT LLJ --CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY-- WILL ACT TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN PW CONCURRENT WITH GPS PW DATA LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. THIS SAME SUITE OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING BEGINNING AROUND 07 UTC ON THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND STEADILY DISPLAYING THIS TREND NEWD WITH TIME DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE...STRONG/INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN HALF OF IA INTO SERN MN DURING THE 07-11 UTC PERIOD WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT PRECIP RATES AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS PRIMARILY STAYING AOB FREEZING...RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN BEING THE PREFERRED P-TYPE. ..SMITH.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 41789106 41809188 43069387 43699358 43899293 43819230 42989083 42299047 41789106  912 ACUS01 KWNS 100557 SWODY1 SPC AC 100554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BEING A LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TIME...THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT RATHER QUICKLY NEWD...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE. AT THE SURFACE...AN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- STRETCHING SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD NEAR THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E/NE WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK -- PARTIALLY DUE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM-ADVECTIVE CONVECTION. WHILE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY -- AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WELL TO THE N OF THIS AREA -- SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND THUS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS WINDS VEER/INCREASE STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT. THUS...STRONGER/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. WHILE MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. AGAIN -- THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED MITIGATING FACTORS ARE A CONCERN...WILL INTRODUCE 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. ..GOSS.. 02/10/2013  859 ACUS11 KWNS 100642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100641 TXZ000-100815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 100641Z - 100815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCLUDE HAIL/WIND AND AT LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING BROKEN NNE-SSW BAND OF TSTMS NEAR AN ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT...A SEPARATE/LEADING AREA OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED GENERALLY NEAR I-10 EAST OF JUNCTION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX. INCREASING DEEP ASCENT ASIDE AS DEDUCED PER IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THESE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...PRIOR TO ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH THE UPSTREAM NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 0630Z. WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS NOT ROBUST...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERE-CALIBER UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME. ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL WARMTH/MOISTURE...ACCENTUATED BY A STEADY RETURN OF MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS...WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ASIDE FROM MORE PROBABLE BOUTS OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS INDICATIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250-300 M2/S2. ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29680019 30270034 30959820 30439650 29279822 29680019  259 ACUS11 KWNS 100739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100738 SDZ000-NEZ000-101245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 100738Z - 101245Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BANDS. DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES EXIT REGION OF POLAR JET/LEADING PORTION OF A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ALONG/WEST OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT ANGLES FROM NORTHWEST KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEB...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC/IR SATELLITE IS ALREADY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUALLY ORGANIZING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB. THIS SAME TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/CLOSE AND OTHERWISE SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. AS SUCH...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEB/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THROUGH 12Z-15Z IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE PROXIMITY OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST KS AND NEARBY UPPER DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL RATES. ACCORDINGLY...1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF WHAT SHOULD AN EVOLVING APPROXIMATELY 50 MILE WIDE HEAVY SNOW BAND. FURTHERMORE...INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY. ..GUYER.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43749872 42819950 41690021 41060107 41310197 41800206 42800179 43790076 44389971 44199877 43749872  345 ACUS03 KWNS 100806 SWODY3 SPC AC 100804 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... EXTENT OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD WILL BE PREDICATED ON NWD EXTENT OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND THE INTENSITY OF SFC LOW THAT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG OLD STATIONARY BOUNDARY. 00Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN REGARDS TO ITS NWD TRACK/PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF SFC LOW WITH A POSITION OVER NWRN AL AT 13/06Z. NAM ALLOWS WARM FRONT TO LIFT WELL INTERIOR WITH A SURGE OF MODIFIED GOM AIR INTO THE ERN TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER WITH THE SFC CYCLONE DUE IN PART TO THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE STUBBORNLY HOLDING NEAR THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL POSITION AND MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS JUST INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ALONG NRN FRINGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO. IF HIGHER QUALITY AIRMASS SPREADS INLAND THEN SEVERE PROBS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ROBUST CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 02/10/2013  837 ACUS11 KWNS 100840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100839 TXZ000-101045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX TO ARKLATEX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28... VALID 100839Z - 101045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 28 CONTINUES UNTIL 13Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BY AROUND 1000-1030Z FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX. DISCUSSION...NEAR/AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...A 200+ MILE CONTINUOUS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL /NEAR THE DFW METRO/ AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX AS OF 0815Z...WITH A MORE BROKEN BAND OF SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOVING TSTMS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK IN VICINITY OF THE JUNCTION AREA/I-10 CORRIDOR. A 44 KT TSTM WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /0825Z/ MEASURED AT FORT WORTH. WHILE A RELATIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COINCIDES WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...LOCALIZED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A MOIST INFLUX PERSISTS NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH/BOWING WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION VERY STRONG SSW DEEP LAYER FLOW...ACCENTUATED BY 60+ KT WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AS PER FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP DATA. FARTHER SSW...DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...WITH STORM MERGERS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH 10-11Z ACROSS CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY AS TSTMS SPREAD INTO TORNADO WATCH 29. ..GUYER.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30300041 31769857 32979744 33639684 33519448 31669414 31809525 32169595 31559738 30659912 30300041  345 ACUS48 KWNS 100926 SWOD48 SPC AC 100925 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 VALID 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION...GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT...WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE UPCOMING DAY4-8 TIME FRAME...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAK BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF STATES/SERN U.S. WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CAROLINA COAST. HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA IT APPEARS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND LACKING SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ROBUST UPDRAFTS...DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..DARROW.. 02/10/2013  229 ACUS11 KWNS 101113 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101112 LAZ000-TXZ000-101245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29... VALID 101112Z - 101245Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES...WITH A CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TX ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE PERSISTED/MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO/HAIL WILL PERSIST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH THESE STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SUCH A THREAT MAY ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY LOCATED 35-40 MILES EAST OF TEMPLE TX NEAR THE FALLS/ROBERTSON COUNTY LINE AS OF 1110Z. HOWEVER...THESE SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERTAKEN BY/MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE NOW CROSSING NORTHEAST/CENTRAL TX THROUGH 12Z-14Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...TSTM COVERAGE/VIGOR MAY REMAIN TEMPERED BY A RESIDUAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND NEUTRAL MID-UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT. FARTHER EAST/LATER THIS MORNING...MORE OF A TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS EAST TX INTO LA...SUCH THAT A NEW WATCH/TORNADO WATCH UPGRADE COULD BE NEEDED. ..GUYER.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30499604 30049760 30609774 31689652 32069495 32029437 31609346 31079340 30769413 30499604  514 ACUS11 KWNS 101220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101220 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 101220Z - 101345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...INCLUDING A PARTIAL UPGRADE OF CURRENT SEVERE TSTM WATCH 30. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN ONGOING SQUALL LINE /AND IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TX/...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING FROM FAR EASTERN TX INTO LA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTHWARD ACROSS LA...WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY MIDDAY. SAMPLING THE SOURCE REGION AIRMASS NEAR/OFF THE COAST...THE 12Z OBSERVED LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WAS INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A 69F SURFACE LOW AND MEAN MIXING RATIO NEAR 14 G/KG...WITH LITTLE INHIBITION AND MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG. STRONG SHEAR/LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS WITH ASSOCIATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM EAST TX INTO LA. ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31279514 31649521 32249462 32709255 32649114 32109108 31299156 30479249 30449410 30579590 31279514  531 ACUS01 KWNS 101221 SWODY1 SPC AC 101219 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MON AS POTENT NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPR LOW EJECTS NE TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY...AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES DROPPING SWD FROM CANADA MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS. THE NEB SYSTEM SHOULD REACH SRN MN THIS EVE AND WI/LK MI EARLY MON AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKS FROM CNTRL NEB TO UPR MI. COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS OVER FAR E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WNW-ESE WARM FRONT EDGING NWD ACROSS LA/MS. ...E TX INTO LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST TODAY/TNGT... TX PORTION OF SW-NE SQLN NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL TX TO WRN AR IS LOCATED ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEB UPR LOW. THE SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO WRN LA/S CNTRL AR LATER THIS MORNING...AND INTO CNTRL LA BY MID AFTN...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO DECELERATE IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE NEB LOW. A BAND OF ENHANCED SW TO WSWLY FLOW ATTENDANT TO A PASSING JET STREAK IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW /WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AOA 50 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD LA AND MS BY MIDDAY AND REACH AL BY EVE. THIS FEATURE WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN 60-70 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS REGION...AND WILL MAINTAIN A WIND ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. AT THE SAME TIME...CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOA 70F/ OVER THE WRN AND N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO POISED TO SPREAD NWD INTO MUCH OF LA AND SRN MS LATER TODAY AS LLJ NOW OVER E TX STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EWD AHEAD OF SQLN/COLD FRONT. GIVEN EXPECTED WIND PROFILES...CONTINUED LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING SQLN...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR NUMEROUS EMBEDDED LEWPS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS WITH DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN LA. ONSHORE ARRIVAL OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY AT TIME OF MAX HEATING. COUPLED WITH SIMULTANEOUS STRENGTHENING OF DEEP SHEAR...SETUP COULD BREACH EML CAP AND PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT A FEW DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE SQLN INVOF DIFFUSE WNW-ESE WARM FRONT IN CNTRL/ERN LA AND SW MS. THESE STORMS COULD POSE A GREATER RISK FOR TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SQLN/COMPLEX MCS BY EVE...WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS. AN ELEVATED EXTENSION OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE NE INTO AL/WRN AND NRN GA BY EARLY MON. DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS UPR LOW CONTINUES NEWD TO THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT COMBINATION OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP WSWLY FLOW AND RESIDUAL POCKETS OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/UN-OVERTURNED AIR MAY MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILISTIC/CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST INTO EARLY MON...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. ..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 02/10/2013  963 ACUS11 KWNS 101246 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101246 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL MN...ERN SD AND FAR SE ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101246Z - 101845Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY. RATES MAY APPROACH 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW DUE TO BREEZY ELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DISCUSSION...THE SFC LOW OVER SW NEB HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL NEB THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD NW IA/SRN MN...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS EWD. SNOWFALL RATES WILL FIRST INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD INTO SW MN THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...HIGHER RATES/HEAVIER SNOW BAND SHOULD PIVOT NORTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. AT LEAST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS FAR N-CNTRL IA CONFIRM THIS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW BANDS MAY RESULT IN RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY ELY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1/2 MILE...CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ..LEITMAN.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43489624 43279668 43369730 43879787 44349803 45499782 45749767 46229737 46489696 46709624 46799547 46689423 46259301 45689205 44929171 44409188 44149304 43949405 43719541 43489624  906 ACUS11 KWNS 101619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101619 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...NRN AND CNTRL LA THROUGH WCNTRL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 31... VALID 101619Z - 101745Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 31 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST ACROSS REMAINING PART OF WW 31 WITH GREATEST TORNADO THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM A SMALL PORTION OF SERN TX...INTO WCNTRL THROUGH NERN LA. NRN END OF SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO WCNTRL MS MAY POSE AT MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN AR...NRN LA INTO SERN TX MOVING EAST AT 25-35 KT...WITH FASTER MOVEMENT ALONG NRN END. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN LA NWWD INTO NERN LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE QLCS. A 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MUCH OF TODAY...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...DEWPOINTS MAY RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS SCNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY PERSISTENT INFLOW OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING COLD POOL. LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TRAIN NEWD WHILE THE LINE ADVANCES MORE SLOWLY EWD. CLOUD BREAKS ARE OCCURRING OVER SWRN LA...AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY AS THE NEAR SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. NRN END OF LINE MOVING INTO WRN MS IS NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO STABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT AT THE CURRENT TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SRN THROUGH SCNTRL MS THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL/MEAD.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30369416 31399415 32199283 33169132 33669110 33598994 32808995 32299099 31529152 30979173 30269209 30369416  066 ACUS01 KWNS 101622 SWODY1 SPC AC 101620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR SERN TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER CNTRL NEB WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES...A BROAD BELT OF STRONG...SWLY MID TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE MOST RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE MID MS INTO OH VALLEY WITH THE SRN PORTION PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX COAST. ...SERN TX TO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... A QLCS WHICH INITIATED OVERNIGHT OVER N-CNTRL INTO CNTRL TX IS IN PROGRESS AS OF MID MORNING FROM NWRN MS INTO SERN TX. THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...FEATURING A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH AN EML WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE SRN EXTENSION OF A 40-50+ KT LLJ WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD...SUPPORTING THE NEWD FLUX OF A SIMILAR BOUNDARY LAYER INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS...AND EVENTUALLY THE SWRN QUARTER OF AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. LATEST CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT QLCS. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...A DECELERATING COLD FRONT...AND STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELDS MAY RESULT IN THE BREAKUP OF THE QLCS INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND/OR INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND THE PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE...CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL LA INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONG-LIVED BOWING STRUCTURES THAT MAY DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM SERN MS INTO CNTRL/SWRN PARTS OF AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS/BOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EWD/NEWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 138. ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 02/10/2013  014 ACUS11 KWNS 101654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101653 MSZ000-LAZ000-101830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND ECNTRL LA THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 101653Z - 101830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED TO INCLUDE SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MS AND A PORTION OF SERN LA. SOME OF THE COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN WW 31 OVER PORTIONS OF ERN LA MAY BE REDEFINED INTO THE NEW WW. PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN LA THROUGH EXTREME SWRN MS INTO NERN LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A SQUALL LINE THAT STRETCHES SWWD INTO SERN TX. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST WITH THAT PORTION OF THE LINE NEAR AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE UNSTABLE DUE TO INFLUX OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE. PORTION OF THE LINE MOVING INTO WCNTRL MS IS NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE THE SFC LAYER IS MORE STABLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL POSE AN INITIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND DESTABILIZES...TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NWD INTO SCNTRL MS THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL/MEAD.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31489195 32379081 33078977 32408894 31538973 30439184 30809260 31489195  852 ACUS02 KWNS 101723 SWODY2 SPC AC 101722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTING FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN STATES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO W TX OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO SRN AL/MS/LA AND INTO DEEP S TX AROUND 18Z. WHILE THE CAROLINAS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E...WRN PORTIONS WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FROM SRN MS/AL EWD INTO GA...WHILE ANOTHER THREAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS TX AS THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH ROTATES EWD. ...SRN LA...MS...AL...GA...FL PANHANDLE... STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN MS INTO SRN AL AND WRN GA IN THE MORNING...POSSIBLY WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL BE STRONG. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK WITH BUT PERHAPS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SMALL BOWS. ...MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN TX... THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE W. THIS WILL CREATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF THE FRONT WITH RAPID MOISTENING AND LIFT MAINLY AFTER 03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE OVER W CNTRL TX CLOSEST TO THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE FOR INSTABILITY ALSO DECREASES WITH WWD EXTENT. ..JEWELL.. 02/10/2013  744 ACUS11 KWNS 101858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101857 WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN...NWRN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101857Z - 110000Z SUMMARY...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD AHEAD OF A CYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN ND...NRN MN...AND FAR NWRN WI. DISCUSSION...18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW NEAR KSUX...WITH AN ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING S-SEWD ACROSS SWRN IA AND WRN MO. IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECT AN ASSOCIATED MATURE UPPER CYCLONE...WITH AN ATTENDANT SWATH OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION EXPANDING N-NEWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WRN BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WITHIN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF RATES MAY OCCUR AS MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CO-LOCATED WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. AN ABRUPT CESSATION TO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SWATH LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY AIR INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE...BUT ENHANCED RATES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THROUGH 00Z. ..ROGERS.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 46199589 46259693 46549759 48619766 48919699 48599388 47959164 46519039 45869053 45299115 45239188 45839391 46199589  008 ACUS01 KWNS 101927 SWODY1 SPC AC 101925 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA INTO AL... ...SRN LA...MS...AL... A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WRN AL ACROSS CNTRL MS AND LA. NRN PORTIONS OF THE APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TO THE SW...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S F ACROSS SRN MS...AND INTO THE UPPER 60S F OVER SRN LA. THE MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND LCH SHOW A DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LITTLE CAPPING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OUT OF THE EXISTING LINE. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN IN PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CELLS OVER SERN LA AND SRN MS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE HODOGRAPH. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST...AND CELLS COULD CHANGE CHARACTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SWRN-MOST CELLS CLOSEST TO THE WARMER AIR. STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE MAIN LINE COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 02/10/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013/ ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER CNTRL NEB WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES...A BROAD BELT OF STRONG...SWLY MID TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE MOST RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE MID MS INTO OH VALLEY WITH THE SRN PORTION PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX COAST. ...SERN TX TO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... A QLCS WHICH INITIATED OVERNIGHT OVER N-CNTRL INTO CNTRL TX IS IN PROGRESS AS OF MID MORNING FROM NWRN MS INTO SERN TX. THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...FEATURING A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH AN EML WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE SRN EXTENSION OF A 40-50+ KT LLJ WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD...SUPPORTING THE NEWD FLUX OF A SIMILAR BOUNDARY LAYER INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS...AND EVENTUALLY THE SWRN QUARTER OF AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. LATEST CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT QLCS. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...A DECELERATING COLD FRONT...AND STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELDS MAY RESULT IN THE BREAKUP OF THE QLCS INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND/OR INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND THE PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE...CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL LA INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONG-LIVED BOWING STRUCTURES THAT MAY DEVELOP. EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM SERN MS INTO CNTRL/SWRN PARTS OF AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS/BOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EWD/NEWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 138.  019 ACUS11 KWNS 101959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101959 MSZ000-LAZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND SERN LA THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32... VALID 101959Z - 102130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT NOW THROUGH 22Z APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM ACROSS SRN MS. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 32 FROM ECNTRL AND SERN LA INTO SRN AND SCNTRL MS. DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS DISCRETE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS FROM SERN LA INTO SRN MS. STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ARE SURFACE BASED AND HAVE ACCESS TO MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. VWP DATA SHOW VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WITH 400-500 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THE DISCRETE STORMS IN SRN MS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING THE ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXPAND NWD AND EWD WITH TIME. OTHER STORMS FARTHER WEST WITHIN THE LINE WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30929211 31519121 32409003 32338860 31368910 30248959 30499228 30929211  327 ACUS11 KWNS 102040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102039 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MS THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 102039Z - 102145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FROM EXTREME SERN MS INTO SWRN AND SCNTRL AL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 22Z. DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BOOT HEEL OF MS NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF SRN MS. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN AL WHERE A 50 KT SSWLY LLJ IS AUGMENTING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THESE INITIAL STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER THAT RESIDES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH AT LEAST MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE EVENING. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH TORNADO THREAT LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE EROSION OF THE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. ..DIAL/MEAD.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30718902 31638884 32288796 32648704 32368649 31408681 30448794 30718902  950 ACUS11 KWNS 102148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102147 MSZ000-LAZ000-102315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS THROUGH A PORTION OF SERN LA AND EXTREME SWRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32... VALID 102147Z - 102315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SRN MS...A PORTION OF SERN LA AND EXTREME SWRN AL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS DISCRETE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS SRN MS. THESE STORMS ARE SURFACE BASED AND ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 500 M2/S2. TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AS THESE STORMS TRAVERSE THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ WARM SECTOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31229104 31938962 31768855 30728863 30629067 31229104  276 ACUS11 KWNS 102304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102303 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS / ERN PORTIONS OF SRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32... VALID 102303Z - 102330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN MS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN LA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO. DISCUSSION...THE SWD STALLING OF AN EWD MOVING MCS ACROSS MS AND AL HAS CONFINED BUT LEFT A MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE/ UNDISTURBED OVER SRN LA AND SRN MS. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BANDS HAVE SERVED AS PREFERRED FOCI FOR CONTINUED STORM GENERATION THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED INTO THE MID 70S NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. INPUTTING THE STORM MOTION /240 AT 40 KT/ FOR THE LAMAR COUNTY MS CONFIRMED TORNADIC STORM IS YIELDING AROUND 200 M2/S2 0-1 SRH WITHIN A FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE BELT OF H85 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTERMITTENT ISOLD RISK FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ..SMITH/KERR.. 02/10/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30799248 31708981 32068864 31968807 31608791 31338819 30538898 30309031 30319198 30799248