867 ACUS01 KWNS 150033 SWODY1 SPC AC 150031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2012 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN NY... A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL NY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AS THE CELL RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST RECENT DAMAGING WIND REPORTS HAS PROGRESSED INTO QUEBEC. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WAS MEAGERLY BUOYANT AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY 8-12 DEG F OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH OF THIS LINE IN THE CONUS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 09/15/2012  196 ACUS01 KWNS 150533 SWODY1 SPC AC 150531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E/NEWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT ALL BUT ERN ME BY LATE MORNING. FARTHER SW...A PERSISTENT/ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE AZ/NM/SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE WRN GULF COAST TO TEXARKANA. ...ERN ME... A BRIEF TIME WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWEEPS E OF THE STATE AROUND NOON. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT THE SLOWER SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM SUGGESTS WEAK HEATING COULD YIELD SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL LARGELY PARALLEL THE FRONT...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...TEXARKANA... SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS SHOULD FORM ONCE AGAIN INVOF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CORRIDORS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS A JET STREAK EJECTS NEWD FROM FAR W TX. STILL WITHIN A POOR MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN PULSE TO WEAKLY-ORGANIZED AND THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..GRAMS.. 09/15/2012  517 ACUS02 KWNS 150554 SWODY2 SPC AC 150552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT THIS PERIOD...AS RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE NRN-STREAM CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NRN CONUS YIELDS TO STRENGTHENING MEAN TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS... 1. SERIES OF SMALL/WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SPEED MAX NOW OVER NWRN CANADA IS FCST TO PHASE AND STRENGTHEN DAY-1 WHILE MOVING SEWD AWAY FROM BUILDING MEAN RIDGE. BY START OF PERIOD...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WRN MB WSWWD ACROSS SK TO ERN AB. DURING DAY-2...NRN PORTION OF ITS VORTICITY FIELD WILL CALVE OFF AND EJECT ENEWD OVER SRN HUDSON BAY...WHILE SRN PORTION PROCEEDS SEWD AND AMPLIFIES FURTHER. BY 17/12Z...STG HEIGHT FALLS ARE FCST OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES NWRN MN...CENTRAL SD AND WRN NEB. AT SFC...STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM 16/12Z POSITION NEAR THUNDER BAY AND ABR-RAP-BIL LINE TO 17/00Z POSITION FROM ISLE ROYALE AREA SWWD TO WEAK WAVE LOW BETWEEN YKN-VTN...AND EXTREME SERN WY. AT THAT TIME...DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN SANDHILLS OF NEB SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK AND SW TX...AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT FROM N-S THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LS SWWD ACROSS IA TO CENTRAL/SWRN KS AND NERN NM. 2. SW-NE ELONGATED MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW CENTERED OVER SRN NM -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL/ERN TX MOSTLY IN OPEN-WAVE CONFIGURATION. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SLGT POSITIVE TILT THROUGH PERIOD. WHILE PROGS ARE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PHASE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...THERE STILL IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG SREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/NAM REGARDING AMPLITUDE. THIS...IN TURN...RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE...WITH WEAK SPECTRAL SFC TROUGH AND PRONOUNCED NAM SFC LOW OVER N-CENTRAL GULF APPROXIMATING SREF EXTREMES ON EITHER END. ...NERN NEB TO WI... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF FRONT IMPINGING ON PROGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. COVERAGE IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM SIOUX-LAND AREA INTO NRN NEB DUE TO DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR STRONGER EML-RELATED MLCINH...THOUGH CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY DISCRETE. BY AFTERNOON...MOIST ADVECTION/TRANSPORT SHOULD LEAD TO CORRIDOR OF 50S TO LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AHEAD OF FRONT. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN SERN SD/SRN MN/WRN WI CORRIDOR...AND SOME VEERING/CURVATURE TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...BUT WITH ONLY 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WRN WI NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI. ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL AND TRANSIENT FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2012  668 ACUS03 KWNS 150729 SWODY3 SPC AC 150728 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-AIR PATTERN AMPLIFICATION DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AS STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. BY END OF PERIOD...FULL-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS LS AND DOWN MS VALLEY TO LA. RELATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD FROM ERN LS REGION ACROSS NECK OF ONT. ATTACHED/STG SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD/SEWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD...REACHING WRN LOWER MI...MO OZARKS...SRN OK AND SERN NM BY 18/00Z. BY 18/12Z...FRONT SHOULD PROCEED TO SRN ONT...OH...AL AND NWRN GULF. SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN NM -- WILL DEAMPLIFY AMIDST HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGING FROM NRN STREAM. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON LOCATION OVER E TX...AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...AT START OF PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF RESULTANT SFC LOW MOVING INLAND FROM GULF...DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL AND PERHAPS GA. ...LM AREA TO OZARKS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF FRONT DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FROM LM AREA SWWD TO SRN MO WHERE FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL FOR AOA 5% PROBABILITIES ATTM. DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. GREATER DEEP-LAYER WINDS/SHEAR THEN MAY SPREAD OVER PREFRONTAL SECTOR AFTER DARK...OVER OH/ERN KY WHEN BUOYANCY IS MINIMAL. DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING...WEAKER PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM MS RIVER...LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND LEADING TO UNCERTAINTIES ON TSTM COVERAGE AS WELL. ...MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION... SUSTAINED EPISODE OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS APPEARS MORE PROBABLE OVER THIS REGION...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING 1. STRENGTH/LOCATION OF FOCI FOR CONVECTION AND 2. DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION/HEATING AMIDST LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED PRECIP. SVR POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION ALSO APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. WHERE SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...GREATEST INFLUENCE WILL BE ISALLOBARIC IMPACT ON LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM SFC CYCLONE. STRONGEST SFC-WAVE SCENARIO -- I.E. NAM -- YIELDS FCST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN PORTIONS TN VALLEY/AL. ATTM...UNCERTAINTIES ON BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SHEAR/BUOYANCY OVERLAPS PRECLUDE SPECIFIC SVR PROBABILITY AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2012  752 ACUS48 KWNS 150830 SWOD48 SPC AC 150829 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... HIGH-AMPLITUDE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP FROM HUDSON BAY SWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO N-CENTRAL/NWRN GULF DAY-4. BY 19/00Z...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/DAY-3 OUTLOOKS...SHOULD REACH INLAND MID-ATLC REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...PERHAPS AS FAR E AS VA-GA PIEDMONT REGION. STG LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR...WITH PREFRONTAL 60S DEW POINTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER 60S TO 70S FROM COASTAL MID-ATLC SWD. LIKELY STG COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO FRONT MAY BE ONE LIMITING FACTOR...AS WOULD BE MRGL LAPSE RATES ALOFT. HOWEVER...JUXTAPOSITION OF INCREASING WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD CORRIDOR OF CONCENTRATED LOW-CAPE/STG-SHEAR SVR THREAT...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. DAY-5/19TH/20TH...SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/DIURNAL HEATING CAN OCCUR TO YIELD AT LEAST MRGL PREFRONTAL CAPE. HOWEVER...GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON SPEED/TIMING OF FROPA PRECLUDES SPECIFIC 30% UNCONDITIONAL-SVR LINE ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2012  605 ACUS01 KWNS 151204 SWODY1 SPC AC 151202 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED FROM WRN NY TO CNTRL QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SHIFT E/NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A LIMITED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ACROSS ERN MAINE AS SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY TRACKS EWD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. FURTHER SW...A WEAK TROUGH POSITIONED OVER W TX AND NRN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WRN MT MOUNTAINS. ...ERN MAINE... LIMITED SFC HEATING THROUGH BROKEN CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENCROACHES ON THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WEAK SBCAPE /LESS THAN 750 J PER KG/...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND REPORT BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...ARKLATEX... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM WRN AR INTO ERN TX. POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MAINLY PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION EXPECTED. ..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 09/15/2012  877 ACUS01 KWNS 151609 SWODY1 SPC AC 151607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SERN PROVINCES OF CANADA TODAY AHEAD OF A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS ERN ME WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY EXPECTED BEFORE 21Z. ...SRN U.S... SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SRN U.S. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PW VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION. OTHER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW ACROSS FL BUT MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGEST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ...NWRN MT... STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM ERN WA INTO NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROVE VERY SPARSE AND CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 09/15/2012  041 ACUS02 KWNS 151638 SWODY2 SPC AC 151637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN SD AND WRN NEB BY 00Z WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME WEAK STORMS. ...SERN SD...SRN MN..NRN IA...SWRN WI... MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE CONVECTION-FREE...BUT HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SERN SD AND NERN NEB WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS. FARTHER E...CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT BUT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE DEEPENS WITH TIME...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE FRONT. WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE AREA FOR MARGINAL HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 09/15/2012  259 ACUS01 KWNS 151844 SWODY1 SPC AC 151842 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE...NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ..JEWELL.. 09/15/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012/ ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE SERN PROVINCES OF CANADA TODAY AHEAD OF A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS ERN ME WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY EXPECTED BEFORE 21Z. ...SRN U.S... SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN OTHERWISE WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SRN U.S. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PW VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION. OTHER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW ACROSS FL BUT MEAGER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGEST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN ROBUST INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ...NWRN MT... STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM ERN WA INTO NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE IS QUITE MEAGER ACROSS THIS REGION THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROVE VERY SPARSE AND CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.